Unqualified Offerings: Now 500% Less Stuck Up - Finally redid the links list, providing, among other things, a much better representation of blogs UO reads. The old Baker's Dozen has become the O.G. section (Original Gangztas or Old Guard as you prefer.) You have to have been with UO back in the day to get here. It's pretty well frozen. New Crew is like the O.G. only more recent. It's heavily biased toward libertarians and war skeptics, but includes folks who are neither, or fit only one classification. Not Blogs ain't blogs. Regular Reading is what it sounds like. It includes people I follow with fervor, like Aziz Poonawalla and Glenn Reynolds, some longstanding pleasures and some folks who are relatively new to me.

I will try to do a better job updating the blogroll in the future. I apologize to anyone who expected to find themselves here and got missed. (I now get enough traffic that I have to worry about coming off as high-handed.) For what it's worth, I find that blogrolls have gotten so large that the difference in traffic between a citation (blog item with link) and a blogroll entry (sidebar link) is larger than ever. This is true whether you're Glenn Reynolds or Patrick Nielsen Hayden or little old me.

Bottom Line: If it's listed, I think it's worth reading, and encourage people to explore any strange entries. If it's not listed, that doesn't mean I don't think it's worth reading. Being listed certainly doesn't mean I agree with everything I read there. Where would be the fun in that?

She's BAAAAaack - ! - Ginger Stampley returns to active blogging at What She Really Thinks after successful outpatient surgery. Huzzah!

Variety Hour - And after that, clearly, this site needs more banjo jokes. Today's contribution comes from Patrick Nielsen Hayden of Electrolite:

What I really want to say, though, is Q: "What's the rarest sentence in
the English language?"

A: "Look, isn't that the banjo player's Porsche?"

Q: "What's the definition of an optimist?"

A: "A banjo player with a beeper!"

His Aim Is True - National treasure Stephen Hunter, novelist and movie reviewer for the Post, writes about the sniper case. This is a very good thing, because Hunter actually knows what he's talking about. As the byline says

Stephen Hunter, who is a Post movie critic, is the author of several novels on sniper activities, has taken two tactical shooting courses with professional sniper instructors and has hunted widely.

This is easily the best speculative piece yet, though it deserves to be considered more deductive than speculative. Hunter knows guns and bullets and shooting the way few journalists do.

Still, we do know certain things about him so far, as inferred from his actions as filtered from the information the police have passed on. This much can be said: At some level, we know what he knows.

This is because he has established a performance baseline, and like any phenomenon, it is available and subject to analysis. Thus, certain facts...

After explaining the skills the shooter must have to have done what he's done (read them in the article), Hunter continues

Still, none of these skills compute to the heavily trained operative or a terrorist. They are Shooting 101 techniques, easily learnable in an afternoon by anyone, man, woman or teenager, with routine coordination. They are accessible on the Internet or in any issue of a gun magazine. So far, in my judgment at least, he has not shown any extraordinary shooting skill. He apparently missed his first shot, and two of his victims have survived, one of whom has already been released from the hospital. So he can make a mistake. By aiming at the torso, he is giving himself a relatively large target through a scope even at his most extreme range. He also chooses targets who are fairly still -- people filling their gas tanks being a speciality of his -- which means he hasn't needed the coordination and the computation of leads needed for moving targets.

Furthermore, what little evidence there is indicates he is shooting within what is called "maximum point-blank range." That is the zone in which the bullet will strike reasonably close to the point of aim so that no advanced techniques -- such as holding over the target to compensate for the bullet's drop, or figuring the adjustment to the scope sight before shooting -- are necessary. The drop of a .223-style bullet in most loadings at 150 yards is less than two inches; he can aim and shoot in relative ballistic confidence. He has not shot at any range in which wind is a particular factor, so, even though the bullets are light, again he's not demonstrating advanced shooter's skills. He's not at a range far enough, either, for distance estimation or measuring skills to come into play. He doesn't need any of the inexpensive laser range finders that have become common today.

This is consistent with the geographies of the Montgomery County sites, which are the ones I know best. At Kensington Shell, for instance, there probably doesn't exist a 600 or 1200-yard line of sight to be impressive from.

How much does he know about guns? Is he a "gun person," who reads the shooter's magazines and goes to gun shows and orders sniper manuals from the reprint houses? No credible evidence exists to prove this.

For one thing, he's chosen quite a prosaic, low-cost system. It so happens we are in a period of remarkable advances in long-distance shooting, not merely with those laser range finders, but also with a whole batch of ultra magnum cartridges of very recent vintage, that make shots at heretofore undreamed-of distances possible for the common man as opposed to the skilled professional or heavily committed amateur shooter. He doesn't appear to be using any cutting-edge technology.

This is interesting, because it's the "remarkable advances" that are the foundation of the so-called "sniper subculture" the Violence Policy Center has been inveighing against. But near as we can tell, the shooter needs no particularly specialized gear to do what he has done. Hunter:

His choice of weapon reveals something as well. It's notable that he hasn't selected a firearm or a cartridge that's linked to sniping as it's practiced professionally. The police have described the recovered fragments as being from a ".223 bullet," a particular vagueness that suggests they know a lot more than they're letting on or a lot less. In any event, the .223 family of cartridges -- it could also include a target round like the .222, a varmint round like the .22-250 or a specialized pistol round like the .221 Fireball -- aren't part of authentic sniper practice or the more informal "sniper culture" that surrounds this most disturbing but necessary of jobs. Most government and police snipers use a .308 Winchester rifle because it is far more lethal (its muzzle-energy, which measures force in pounds by mathematical formula, is around 2,300 pounds, while the .223's is around 1,200; in most states the .223 -- or any .22 centerfire -- is illegal for deer hunting because it wounds without killing too frequently.) The .223, as a combat round, has proved disappointing; one merely has to read "Black Hawk Down" or the specialized gun press to sample the discontent with its performance in Mogadishu or Afghanistan.

Whatever the shooter is using, he could be using almost any scoped hunting rifle - precisely the sorts of weapons that most gun controllers have always claimed they have no desire to take away from the public. The shooter may be using an Armalite AR-15, as has been speculated. (Didn't UO read, years ago, that the AR-15 tends to pull up and to the right because it's so light?) But he could be using a 30/.06 or a 30/30 or, as Hunter says, a varmint gun.

So why the light caliber?

The .223 -- or any of the .22 centerfires -- has three further attributes for him that make it far more useful than a more immediately lethal round. First, it has very light recoil. The larger rifles demand a great deal of practice as shooters inure themselves to the blow of the kick.

This seems to make particular sense if most of his shots are from within vehicles.

Second is the ubiquity of the ammunition as well as its low cost. It is an extremely flexible, useful cartridge: It may be used for varmint hunting in bolt-action rifles, where it is capable of accuracy out to 300 or so yards (I own a varmint rifle that is capable of this kind of work) on creatures weighing 10 pounds or less like groundhogs and prairie dogs. It may be used in pest control, as in the Ruger Mini-14, a perfect and beloved ranch and farm rifle. It may be used competitively, for match shooting in specially tricked up M-16 style rifles with heavier bullets. And finally (and inevitably) it is cheap fodder for military enthusiasts who want to shoot it bap-bap-bap in semiautomatic variants of assault rifles in matches or informal plinking or target sessions. (I also own one). That ubiquity certainly makes the tracking of any particular rifle much harder.

It may also, I would think, simply be the gun the shooter happened to be able to get his hands on - passed down from a family member, on special from a pawn shop or newspaper classified, on sale at the gun store. Hunter adduces one more reason:

But its third attribute makes it especially attractive to this monster: Because the recoil is so low, he can watch his bullet strike his target. That is the terrible part: he's planned it so he can watch the dying.

Read the whole thing.

Gee, You Shouldn't Have - Salam Pax expresses his gratitude at his imminent liberation into "a Macarthur-style regency.

Serpentine - Max Sawicky offers an e-mail from a sniper friend (relax! it's an official sniper!) in Word format or as a blog post (without images) on staying safe in these dangerous times. The problem is, staying safe sounds like a lot of damn work.

But Wait, There's More - Many have linked to this story about the Israeli man who had a heart attack when the call girl who arrived at his hotel room turned out to be his daughter. Small world! But let's not overly narrow our focus. There's more happening in world sex than that, and Unqualified Offerings wants to make sure you're up to date.

First, Japan arrests 'secret porn movie makers'

A man watching a pornographic video in Japan reportedly got a shock when he spotted his wife in it...

A 41-year-old man and 33-year-old woman have been arrested on charges of illegal entry after they posed as customers at the bathhouse, the newspaper said.

The Asahi said the woman suspect is alleged to have hidden a camera in her towel in order to film women in the changing room.

The husband of one of the filmed women, whom the report did not name, saw the video at a local shop.

This next story is the kind of thing that will surely continue to happen until school voucher programs are adopted. Girl expelled over stripper mother:

A California nursery school is at the centre of a national debate after it expelled a five-year-old girl because her mother worked as a stripper.
Christina Silvas, aged 25, said she took the job as an exotic dancer at Centrefolds nightclub in Sacramento to pay for her daughter's $400 a month tuition fees.

But the headmaster at the Christian school, Rick Cole, said that all parents signed an agreement that they would only engage in spiritually-enhancing activities and that therefore Ms Silvas had broken the contract.

Perhaps Becki Ross, a sociology professor at the University of British Columbia, could comment on just how good a stripper Ms. Silvas is. Professor Ross "is being paid to study the work and lifestyles of strippers," according to the BBC, on a "grant from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada." Let Unqualified Offerings absolutely deny that it is the sort of right-winger who considers such a grant self-evidently absurd. Professor Ross is correct that sex workers of all kinds are worthy of sociological study. Actually, for the benefit of any readers thinking about where to apply to grad school, it is worth noting that

She said the government grant would pay for the work of a graduate student who would be employed to help her with research.

Two obvious questions suggest themselves. 1) Isn't it likely that Colby Cosh has already made a definitive study of Canadian strippers? 2) So, this Professor Ross. Is she hot?

Shame on you for asking the second question, loyal reader! Do you think this is the Illuminated Donkey or something? Besides, Ross's faculty page says only "Photo Coming Soon."

(Note: Ross appears to have done some solid anti-censorship advocacy in her spare time. They need that in Canada.)

Morning Murder Minute - Lots of frustration but vague hints the police may be on to something. From this morning's Post:

Although [Maj. Howard] Smith [of the Spotsylvania sheriff's office] said investigators did not search any motel rooms yesterday, witnesses said police with bloodhounds cordoned off Room 109 of the Ramada. Sources said they found nothing of interest.

Police briefly took a man they believed was linked to that room into custody yesterday at the crime scene. Hobert "Dewey" Epps, 36, who lives in Georgia and is staying with his fiancee, said he was questioned.

Epps, one of several people detained briefly yesterday, said FBI agents told him that he matched a tentative description of the shooter and that they were concerned about his presence at the scene. Epps said agents showed him a picture -- which he said appeared to have come from a video image -- that slightly resembled him. Epps is about 5-foot-9, of medium build with sandy brown hair and a mustache.

Epps said agents asked him to show his profile. He eventually was released. "They said I looked like the picture of someone at another shooting," he said.

Police are speculating that the killer(s) may be staying at motels for the Virginia portion of the spree, and ducking back into motel rooms to get off the road quickly after a shooting. This like everything else appears to be tentative, but it's awfully interesting that they've advanced to the stage of flashing a specific picture around.

As for the roadblock and white van search, the inspiration seems to be

An employee of a nearby Howard Johnson's motel said she also saw a white van shortly before the shooting. She said it was driven by a blond woman with a man in the passenger seat. She did not see the shooting, however. The woman, who spoke on the condition that her name not be published, was questioned by police.

There would be a certain grim interest-factor if, in an update of the Starkweather case, the driver turned out to be a woman. However:

Some are skeptical that the white van is more than a dead end. Some investigators said they don't doubt that witnesses to yesterday's shooting saw a van, but noted that none knew whether the occupants -- some reported seeing one and others two -- had anything to do with the shooting.

Police report that the consolidated tip line is being overwhelmed. Nevertheless, they're still taking calls:

For the first time, authorities noted the kind of suspect they're after. Montgomery County Police Chief Charles A. Moose said investigators want to hear from people who know someone who has missed a few days of work, has been arriving late to work or has not been keeping to a regular schedule, has been growing agitated and expressing anger toward police or who has been getting "some sort of satisfaction" from the shootings.

How ya doin', Bob?

Dude, great! These sniper shootings are awesome!

Uh, right, Bob, wait here a minute, huh?

* Cloudy and wet today, but no rain, which is a shame. Not because rain hampers the sniper - yesterday proved that wasn't true. But rain gives residents an excuse to put off trips and errands without explicitly admitting to themselves the role that fear plays. Much has changed in the local psyche since I wrote last weekend. And the Daily Telegraph article I made fun of turns out to have been simply premature. Since the Bowie school shooting, the local mood has progressively darkened.

* The Post story makes much of the fact that the Fredericksburg victim, Kenneth Bridges, was standing right across the street from a state trooper, who was investigating an accident. I'm less whelmed, for a couple of reasons. The "street" the trooper was across is US1. I don't know Fredericksburg well, but you'd expect Route 1 to be no less than four lanes and probably six or more in a commercial district. And sure enough, Fredericksburg.com's story says

This time, the brazen killer struck within 50 yards of a uniformed state trooper.

Fifty yards is not exactly cheek by jowl. Second, as this site has noted before, the first official murder - on October 2 outside Shoppers Food Warehouse - took place across the street from an entire police station.

* The Fredericksburg.com coverage is pretty good, and has some information I haven't seen in other reports. (Mind you, that could just be me.) For instance:

One call forwarded to investigators working the sniper case came from a woman who said she was in the Michaels parking lot on Oct. 4 around the time of the shooting.

She described a "strange-looking" white man in a white van and made a drawing for police.

This other Fredericksburg.com story has the most detailed reporting of Spotsylvania witness accounts I've seen, with first-hand interviews of the witnesses. More than just a single Howard Johnson employee, for instance, saw a white van:

Bruce Bingham was standing in front of the Four-Mile Fork Mobil station talking to his boss when he heard what sounded like a gunshot from across the street.

As he looked in the direction of the sound, he saw a white van come through the intersection of U.S. 1 and Market Street and then head for the northbound Interstate 95 entrance ramp a few hundred yards away.

Bingham said he couldn't be sure the van--a Chevy Astro with no windows on the side and no writing on the exterior--was involved in the shooting at the Four-Mile Fork Exxon station across the street, but he found the timing with the traffic light uncanny.

"It was like it happened and the light changed," Bingham said yesterday afternoon as he tried to get back to work on a car in the station's bay.

* Offering Boy has started coming up with excuses for not going to school on Monday. He asked if it was really "flu season," like it says in Miss Bindergarten, and when I allowed that that was sort of true, he announced that he was pretty sure he was coming down with the flu and wouldn't be able to go to school Monday. We both badly need haircuts too, but he doesn't like the idea one bit. I explained that the neighborhood barber shop where we go is "tucked away where no one else knows it's there," which is practically true, which maybe half-mollified him. He also told Mrs. Offering that he was afraid the police at his school might mistake a kid for a bad guy and shoot them. Mrs. Offering told him that they were smarter than that, which is probably true.

A Pot to Peace In - Like many, Unqualified Offerings thinks Jimmy Carter is an inappropriate recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize. After all, as President, Carter maneuvered his nation's top rival into a ruinous war.

(No, Glenn, I'll never give this one up!)

Bons Mots Watch - Actually, Jesse Walker is too good not to quote in part:

Let me go on the record right now and say that, while it's possible that these two people were inspired by Osama's jihad, the chances of their rampage being part of an organized "Fall offensive" are about as high as the chances of it being an elaborate product placement by a manufacturer of white vans.

The full item explains why he thinks this.

Spree Graphs - Chief Moose says the FBI doesn't have our graphic aid ready yet.

Moose said a special FBI unit had not yet finished a graphic aid for the public to help in the search. He did not say what it would show.

Unsoliicted advice to the FBI: iron-on bullseye decals would be in bad taste.

Diana Moon of Letter from Gotham and I have been kicking around the likelihood of the racist killer scenario today via e-mail. I started the day pretty open to it, as can be seen in the morning item. I'm ending the day having all but ruled it out.

Diana points out correctly that the Fredericksburg victim, Kenneth H. Bridges, 53, was black. I was musing on the September 14 incident, where wine store clerk Rupinder Oberoi was shot leaving work. (See this Washington Times story.) In the early reports, it sounded like he was leaving work with his boss, Arnie Zelkovitz. That would mean the shooter had his choice of targets and chose the darker one. Not probative but suggestive. But in the AP story Diana dug up (no link, sorry), reporter Alex Dominguez quotes Zelkovitz as follows:

Oberoi left the store ahead of Zelkovitz about 10:10 p.m. after the two had
just finished working. While Zelkovitz locked the store door, he heard what
he first thought was an engine backfire.

That sequence makes it much less clear that the shooter was looking at two targets rather than one when he fired. What follows are the rest of my thoughts on the matter, adapted from an e-mail to Diana:

In general, reading and thinking today leaves me less inclined to credit racialism as a motive in the killings. I don't think there's any good evidence that the killer is stalking specific victims. My sister and brother-in-law recall a picture of the Shoppers victim and consider him unmistakeably white. As for "anyone living round here would be considered a collaborator," I suppose it might be true, except that the shooter himself almost certainly lives around here. "Geography-over-time" inclines me to think that he's a Montgomery County resident and knows Maryland a LOT better than he knows Virginia. While his MoCo shootings were on arteries, they were relatively far from the Interstate system, while the Virginia shootings have been very close to I95 or I66. Plus, when he kills outside Montgomery County, he operates at a much slower pace. Tentative conclusion: He knows the immediate area where I live better than he knows PG County or Northern Virginia.

When he's caught or killed, it will turn out that he's on the fringe of sniper/hunting/military culture, some kind of buff. That means he'll have been at the same gun show some neo-nazis attended and may have picked up a pamphlet or two out of curiousity. Much will be made of it, probably more than the evidence will warrant.

I still give "white supremacists" better odds than "al Qaeda's fall campaign," but I think we're dealing with a classic folie a deux here, a la Leopold and Loeb or the rogues gallery Susanna Cornett assembled yesterday.

The tag line, "al Qaeda's fall campaign," comes from NRO's The Corner (motto: We're a blog, but we're days behind all the real blogs on the speculation curve.) Jesse Walker offers a reaction here.

I still ain't saying it isn't al Qaeda or Tariq Aziz in black spandex or, for that matter, the Covenant, Arm and Sword of the Lord. But the certitude of people like Jonah Goldberg (on The Corner) that it must be al Qaeda/Saddam/etc. is absurdly in advance of the evidence.

Perverse Incentives - Let's not give our young people reason to appreciate the capital sniper after all.

Truth and Consequences II or, the Twain Meet. Separate e-mails from leftie Hesiod Theogony and rightie Dr. Manhattan demur on the matter of political costs to the Democratic Party of the 1991 Gulf War vote. Hesiod:

...let me offer this guess as to why the Democrats screwed this up [in 2002]:

Presidential politics in 2004.

Daschle, Gephardt, Kerrey and Liberman all wanted to mainatin their viability as canidates in 2004. If they vote against the war, and it goes well, they can be attacked on it.

While it's certainly true that the Democrats didn't pay much of a price at the polls in 1992, the Presidential candidates who supported the war [Clinton
and Gore] wound up winning.

The rank and file were against this. As were most Democrats around the country.

It was all the "leadership." Even Hillary voted "yeah" to protect her viability in 2008.

Dr. Manhattan writes:

I think there were negative consequences that were concealed in the 1992 election because the Democrats ran a ticket which had supported the war (at least allegedly, in Clinton's case.) Most of the key Democratic candidates who had been positioning themselves to run ended up not doing so, in large part because of their votes against the war. (Think Gephardt, Nunn, Bradley, et al.) Had they run, I think the war vote would have had a large negative impact.
That is probably motivating Daschle, Gephardt et al - the thought that their viability would be destroyed long before the first primary.

Finally, the Democrats lost the Senate in 1994, not before the Gulf War (unless you're thinking of 1980-86).

Strong points re the leadership and the 1992 elections. UO has to agree that there was at least a perception at the time that the Democrats needed to nominate a pro-war slate to inoculate themselves against a grimmer version of the Bush-Dukakis campaign. Certainly, as a Democrat who supported the Gulf War at the time (clearly, neither is true today), UO thought the Dems needed a pro-war ticket, and chose its own preferred primary candidate accordingly. (Oh yes, it was the Man from Hope!)

Would nominating a "No" candidate have sunk the Democratic Party, as Dr. Manhattan argues? Maybe. It certainly would have been fatal during any Cold War-era election. On the other hand, Clinton had plenty of "antiwar" baggage of his own - there was the famous draft letter, the Oxford Vietnam protest and the fact that his actual Gulf War position was something of a straddle. The Republicans hammered all these weak points pretty hard. The What-Ifs are complicated by the fact that the alternate candidates Dr. Manhattan recalls for us still look like a pretty weak field regardless of the Gulf War.

Still, UO is going to yield on the Presidential aspirations point, since contemporaneous perception was pretty strong.

Dr. M also fact-checks UO's ass on the actual possession history of the Senate. It was really

Dawn of Time-1980 Dems
1980-1986 Repubs
1986-1994 Dems
1994-2000 Repubs

What I don't think you an do is say that the Gulf War was responsible for the changeover in 1994. 1994 looks like an anti-Clinton reaction - one that affected the House and, I believe, governorships and statehouses too - just as 1986 looks like the expected reaction against the White House incumbent.

On the Senate, we have a post hoc, but I don't see a propter hoc. After all, the Dems maintained control of the Senate in 1992, when the Gulf War votes were fresher and their Presidential candidate was squeaking in with the help of a significant third-party effort.

Bottom line: I'm definitely wrong on one thing, because one should never underestimate the salience of venality and ambition among politicians. But, and I can't stress this enough, that's the only thing I've been wrong about since starting this blog - indeed, since well before that time, as Mrs. Offering would surely tell you!

A Fanboy's Notes: Oh the Irony Dept. - Justin Slotman e-mails re the Jewish superheroes item, specifically the Superman part:

The weird/ironic thing is that Fredric Wertham--you know, the 1950s comics industry-killa--thought Superman was a Nazi prototype. I think the exact quote was, in reference to the S on his chest, "We should be glad, I suppose, it's not an 'SS'."

Man, that crazy Wertham sure could call 'em, huh? If Unqualified Offerings understands correctly, the irony redoubled during a Captain America storyline where it was revealed that the "super soldier project" was actually a Nazi deep-cover operation. After all, as the Skull pointed out, the post-serum Steve Rogers was, physically anyway, the epitome of the ubermensch ideal. (Can't find a link to discussion of such a story, though.)

Meanwhile, on his own weblog, the Insolvent Republic of Blogistan, Justin appears to be attempting to make up for his summer-long absence in a single week. Lots of new material to check out if you're one of those who got out of the habit of visiting Blogistan when Justin was, you know, fucking AWOL.

Truth and Consequences I - Padraig Malinowski of Pad's Scratch Pad e-mails against the troublesome moral distinction between the Republican and Democratic parties:

Last night, you wrote:

"So let UO clarify that it believes the Republican Party is Evil and
Stupid, while the Democratic Party is just Evil. Generally Evil has a
tactical advantage over Evil and Stupid, of course, though it somehow
squandered that advantage this time. Is everybody happy now?..."

In what way is this related to the Dark Helmet theory of metaphysics, first espoused in "Spaceballs"?

"So, Lone Star, now you see that evil will always triumph over good because good is dumb!"

Surely if Unqualified Offerings were a real fanboy, as opposed to a "half-fast" one, it would know something about Spaceballs. But here are a bunch of Spaceballs links, from about.com.

Pad's Scratch Pad itself has sniper news, baseball coverage and other stuff, delivered in an economical and engaging style. That surely gets him off the hook for using my absolute least-favorite Blogger template. Pay him a visit, why don't you?

Further Investigation - Reader/Snowbird Mary LaCroix/Marie The Cross writes:

I believe many of your readers would appreciate having the chance to make up their own minds on this very important issue. The rest of them will just want to see naked ladies.

Nimoy's site is here.

The regulars at MeFi weren't all that impressed, but they brought the snark. See http://www.metafilter.com/mefi/19536

Interlude: Something Completely Different - Need something else to think about for a bit? Me too.

Mid-Day Murder Update - Latest Fredericksburg shooting NBC4 link

"White Chevy Astrovan" - guys seem to have a thing for white vehicles. Waitaminnit. No, too obvious.

Post story

Post interactive map (requires Flash 6)

E-mail from Billy Beck

Here's the most interesting thing to me: CNN has reported that the Exxon gas station at which this took place is "right across the street from a police station."

That's that: as far as that little blurb went. And I know as well as anyone that reports this early can be wildly at variance from the facts.

I've arrived at an opinion of this thing, for the first time: I'll put my money on a couple of psychopathic kids. Almost certainly past high-school age, of course. However, this is far too reckless for me to fit anything else into it. Even if the "police station" thing isn't right, this is just getting *stupid*.

Kids. I'm tellin' ya.

I like to think that they're going to catch these guys soon, that they're getting more restless as they go along, like you'd expect.

CNN's website says

The man was killed at an Exxon gas station on U.S. Route 1 in Spotsylvania County, in the area of Exit 126 on I-95, about 9:30 a.m., according to Virginia state police and county police. No identification of the victim was made immediately available by law enforcement personnel.

The Fredericksburg Freelance-Star report is here. Poked around Spotsylvania County websites, but I can't confirm the propinquity of a police station to the Exxon shooting. That doesn't mean CNN is wrong, of course.

Chief Moose says police are going to pass out a "graphic aid" this afternoon, but won't say what it is. Bitter jokes delayed until at least that time.

Morning Murder Minute - On the for what it's worth front, WTOP runs a - yes - protecting yourself from snipers article. Short version: scuttle in the shadows like a crab.

White van watch:

For investigators, one potentially promising lead was the sighting _ again _ of a white minivan at the murder scene. The van was the most publicly touted lead police had, but they played down its significance late in the day Thursday. Prince William County Police Chief Charlie Deane said when the van was stopped, its occupants had a reasonable explanation for their actions.

For those still wondering whether to eliminate white racialism from the motivation list, this NBC4 article on the funeral of James "Sonny" Buchanan has a picture of the deceased, on the list of white victims of the sniper. UO's opinion? From a distance, you might think him middle eastern or central american. Note that at the time he was shot, Buchanan was engaged in work, landscaping, that is commonly performed by immigrants in the DC area.

The other stumbling block to the white racialist theory is the very blonde woman who died at Kensington Shell. This appears to be a slam dunk. There's a detail UO would like to know first, though, before ruling it out. Mrs. Rivera was married to an immigrant from Central America. He wasn't in the van, of course, but many immigrants have home country flag decals on their bumpers. The combination of a white woman and a family vehicle with a Central American flag sticker may be enough for a racist to file you under "miscegenation" and shoot.

UO still thinks white racialism a less probable theory than pure power-trip murder, FWIW.

The Post has the morning news conference here.

UPDATE: First edition of this post left out the link to the Sonny Buchanan funeral story.

Wobbly Watch - This was going to be a light blogging night! I decided the news of the day was too depressing to write about it much.

Call the Roll - Mr. Patrick Neilsen Hayden of Electrolite maintains, in an e-mail, that the New York Times had the roll call of the House vote on the use of farce resolution up since before I complained that I couldn't find it. In response, UO would only say

1) Yeah? I couldn't find it.

2) So?

3) How about a sortable table, huh? Huh?

4) Patrick Nielsen Hayden is a liberal!

Whatever. Anyway, Connie Morrella (RINO-MD) voted No, so finally her vaunted "independence" is good for something besides procuring goodies for federal employees. Ron Paul voted No. (A good explanation - Paul at his best - is available on Antiwar.com.) Indiana Republican John Hostetler also voted No, and also made a fine speech. Perhaps Hostetler and Paul could found a new party, maybe called "the republican party," or "the republican Party." (Note lower case.) Dick Armey caved, as did most other Republican skeptics. Were I a Republican Party loyalist, I would argue that this is no worse than the conduct of otherwise-dovish Democrats over the Kosovo War in 1999, but I'm not a Republican Party loyalist, and I was hard on the Democrats then, and now it must be said that Dick Armey will retire with less distinction than he might have had.

Only six Republicans voted No in the House. Only 126 Democrats did.

Hesiod Theogony and Glenn Reynolds each argue that the Democrats blew it. Glenn says the Democrats should have cavedgotten behind Bush a couple of months ago and not allowed the vote to turn into the dominant theme of the fall campaign. I think he's wrong, for one of two reasons. One is Mickey Kaus's favorite, the Fieler Faster Thesis. I suspect that the remaining three weeks would be plenty of time for voters to stop worrying about who did what in the run-up to the use of farce vote and think about other things - and that's assuming that voters have much interest in punishing doves at all.

Hesiod's thesis is that this is far from proven and probably not true at all. I think he's right, and I don't think that's wishful thinking on my part either. In a slightly earlier post, Hesiod writes

Everyone else in the country was skeptical, at best, that this was necessary. The Democrats could have gotten a twofer out of this: opposing the war on the principled grounds that it was unnecessary, it distracted from the war on terror, AND that it distracted from dealing with serious domestic problems like the economy. People would NOT have punished the Democrats for taking a principled stand against this war. In fact, they would have PUNISHED Republicans who tried to use the war as a way to win an election.

Hesiod blames the Democratic leadership for what he calls the biggest miscalculation since the Republican handling of the federal government shutdown in 1995.

Assume he's right, which I'll do, because it means assuming I'm right! Why did Daschle and Gephart go so wrong? Supposedly, it's because they remember how Democrats suffered from their strong opposition to the subsequently-popular Gulf War in 1991 (which war we still enjoy to this day!). But tell me, how did the Democrats suffer, really? It was supposed to be this big political disaster. But they won the Presidency in 1992, they had lost the Senate beforehand and it's hard to argue that the 1994 House election turned on a 1991 war vote rather than the usual midterm reaction against the incumbent combined with a rare (and evanescent) outbreak of spine and coherence by the Stupid Party.

(FINAL NOTE: UO does not want to ruffle any partisan feathers even though it has just spent an entire item implying that most congressional Democrats are weenies and that Republicans are spineless dumbasses, even using a famously-insulting sobriquet for them. So let UO clarify that it believes the Republican Party is Evil and Stupid, while the Democratic Party is just Evil. Generally Evil has a tactical advantage over Evil and Stupid, of course, though it somehow squandered that advantage this time. Is everybody happy now?)

Salvaging a Little Humor from a Grim Day - Kevin Maroney e-mails to note that

US Representative Pete Stark is now the first Congresscritter to deliver a blog entry on the floor of the House. He even links to a Molly Ivins column.

Kevin is right. Check out the form factor of Stark's speech in the Salon transcript. The sad thing is, UO is sure it saw Stark's speech laid out on a right-wing blog in such a way that you could really see the "introduce citation - quote citation - follow citation with a conclusion" pattern. As it is, you'll just have to use your imagination, like Barney would want you to do.

It's a Jewish THING - Via Eve Tushnet and RGB Mike Jacobs, this article on Jewish superheroes, Jewish comic book creators and the relation between them. Correctly pegs Peter Parker as tacitly Jewish. They make an interesting case for the Jewishness of seemingly echt WASP Clark Kent, too, though to Unqualified Offerings, the signal difference between Marvel Age heroes and the Golden and Silver-Age National/DC gang is that Marvel's characters had an urban ethnic (mostly jewish) vibe that the DC characters didn't.

Thing I did not know: Jack Kirby was Jewish. I figured him for Irish, and hence Catholic. Thing I probably should have expected: Stan Lee says the Jewish angle on Peter Parker and Ben Grimm et al never crossed his mind. Thing I don't get: No discussion of Ragman. Stuff I did not know: All sorts of info on independent, creator-owned Jewish superhero comics.

UPDATE: Eve e-mails

Why "jewish" not "Jewish"? Has very bad resonances/connotations--people usually use the lower case when they're denigrating Jews.

Shows what Unqualified Offerings knows. It vaguely thought the reverse was true, if anything. But it changed everything to initial caps, just in case.

Spree Graphs - They've definitely tied the Manassas murder to the others. As the story drags on it becomes simultaneously more grindingly horrible and less interesting. I'm starting to feel an instinctive revulsion to even writing about it. Others have more stamina, so, some links:

Local blogger Combustible Boy has a couple of items. What's more, he appears to belong to a club that has the power to bestow a superhero name on UO, which would be really cool, so be nice to him. Here he asks the sensible question

When will police learn that "I am disappointed that someone on the team has leaked this information" is a confirmation, and defeats the purpose of refusing to confirm the information?

Unqualified Offerings is, personally, willing to teach the police this for nothing more than a gigantic consulting fee and a speaking engagement at a law-enforcement conference in Hawaii. Extra plane fare for Mrs. Offering goes without saying.

Here he notes that a Canadian rag says we supposedly call the sniper the "Tarot-Card Killer." It has a certain romantic air of mystery about it, and CB's suggested edit, "The Tarot Sniper" is punchier. Thus, Unqualified Offerings flat refuses to use either term. It will not honor the bastard with a colorful sobriquet. (UO has never gone in for "9/11" or "last September's tragedies" either, for allied reasons.) This site will stick with capital spree killer or, maybe, the Maryland sniper. And that's it.

CB has other items on the topic too.

Susanna Cornett debunks a myth - that spree killers and serial murderers always work alone - with a brief list of famous lethal pairs. See the thirteenth comment on her post for a detailed description of the Manassas crime scene by a local resident.

To lighten the mood a bit, she also offers a banjo joke.

The Talking Dog has two October 10 items discussing the sniper case, possible terrorist connections and the nature of evidence at length. They're interesting indeed, but Unqualified Offerings can't help thinking that it's a good thing your TD no longer lives down here, if this is how worked up the case is getting him from 200 miles away. Like several liberal commentators, he touches on gun control matters. After saying that the Second Amendment guarantees an individual right to keep and bear arms and the Supreme Court should affirm that, he goes on to make the familiar call for "reasonable regulation," and concludes

However, SENSIBLE REGULATION OF GUNS AND BULLETS IS PERFECTLY CONSISTENT WITH THE SECOND AMENDMENT (just as the "right to vote" is still REGULATED, via residency, registration, age and other requirements). Any responsible gun owner should have no problem registering their weapon, and I can think of no LEGITIMATE reason why they should object to registering their bullets. But, it ain't the law, making law enforcement's job that much harder in a case like this. So, again, thanks to the National Rifle Association. From all of us.

UO sees a lot of problems with this. First, in the absence of a formal acknowledgement that the Second Amendment enshrines an individual right, the NRA is only sensible in opposing anything that smacks of universal registration. We have the British example before us, where universal registration really was a prelude to universal confiscation. We can look back at the debates on the introduction of social security numbers in this country. Opponents argued that the number would become a de facto national ID. Paranoid nonsense, said supporters. We see how that worked out. In the case of voting rights themselves, we have seen regulations that were later understood to vitiate the supposed right. They were eventually struck down, yes, but they persisted for decades beforehand.

Moreover, the purpose of the arms-bearing right is to enable the people to defend themselves against an overweening government. (viz. Federalist 46.) Any registration scheme the government runs seems to fall foul of a conflict of interest. (This kind of talk upsets a lot of liberals, but it says what it says.)

Reader Ken Landa wrote to suggest ways that the tarot card might be misdirection on the part of the sniper:

First, sloppy news reporting is always a good guess!!

Second, with regard to the deliberate plant by the shooter of a shell casing, it could:
1. be the wrong brand of ammo (assuming of course that it is the correct calibre);
2. have someone else's fingerprint on it;
3. be placed there (along with a false lie-down patch in the grass and the note) to create the impression that the shot came from there, when if fact it came from elsewhere (e.g., the vehicle?); etc.

If you are the shooter and you've caught the news, you know that the profilers and pundits are reading motives and idendifying traits into every shred of evidence and supposition. So, maybe, because you want to feed into the hysteria, spawn false theories, etc., you plant some evidence to confirm one aspect of the theory that doesn't apply to you, and some evidence that contracts an aspect of the theory that actually does.

Perhaps an example to illustrate. some profiler says -- his first shooting was in front of a police precint, so he is trying to show contempt for law enforcement. He's probably someone who applied for a law enforcement job and was rejected. Shooter knows he has never applied for a law enforcement job, but likes the angle, so he leaves a tarot card proclaiming his superiority to the cops. Cops go chasing that lead, meanwhile he _knows_ it is a dead end.

Press goes nuts with this new angle, tip lines become jammed with reports that(a) my nephew is a cop nut, but is working nights a security guard; or (b) my son-in-law buys that brand of ammo, and I never did like him.

Anyway, I'm not saying that I believe all this... Now where did I put my tinfoil hat....

Ken's point that the sniper may be thinking a few moves ahead of the police certainly can't be refuted yet.

Lastly, the sniper reward fund is up to $333,000. If you've been holding out until we made it worth your while, you have to figure the fund is going to peak soon.

UPDATE: Forgot William Burton's latest speculations.

The Media Really Does Suck - Wouldn't you think the big legacy-media websites could have the House and Senate roll call votes on the Iraqi use of farce (sic) resolutions up by now? And the House website throws off Error 500s if you try to view the roll call votes page - at least it has for the last hour.

Why, as a matter of fact, Unqualified Offerings is depressed! What tipped you off?

Morning Murder Minute - Slept in this morning, so I haven't had time to digest the Manassas shooting. Here's the MSNBC report, which notes

Police have said publicly that they had few clues, and law enforcement experts suggested that investigators’ best hope was that the killer would make a mistake.

That could have happened Wednesday night at the Sunoco gasoline station in Manassas. The station was monitored by a security camera, and a color videotape of the victim slumped on the ground was reported to exist.

Police are looking for two men in a white van (not truck). Here's the Post story.

Here's Tony Woodlief on how the press conferences should go.

This is Sports Center with Unqualified Offerings - Unqualified Offerings is not a big fan of sportstalk star Jim Rome. partly UO is firmly in the brevity-is-the-soul-of-wit camp, while Rome can be counted on to repeat any quip he makes that he finds funny between three to five times before moving on. He has a three hour show, but if he said everything once he could do it in an hour. Also, Rome spends way too much time on baseball for UO's interest level (negligible). Rome also strikes UO as a fawning interviewer who asks too many leading questions. ("How great is that?" "Really great, Jim.")

Nor is UO fond of Terry Bradshaw's TV persona, which it finds too self-consciously folksy to be borne.

All that said, Rome's interview with Bradshaw yesterday on his radio show is an absolute, must-listen, do-not-even-think-of-missing-this classic. See the synopsis here, and click the links at the bottom to listen. What makes it essential? First, we are talking about, as Rome says, Terry Freakin Bradshaw. Childhood hero to many of us. Second, Bradshaw is completely open, informative and full of feeling and goodwill about lots of the post-career controversies he's famous for, particularly the long estrangement from the Steeler organization and Pittsburgh fandom that is finally ending. "I feel like the Prodigal Son," he says at one point, and blames himself for the rupture and talks about things he's done to put things right. And lots more. This is not the cornpone Bradshaw, but the guileless, even wise one.

The interview is an hour and a half long, but it's an hour and a half of pure wonder.

Sniper Roundup - NBC4's site has an additional resources page, with tip lines, links to school district websites and counseling hotline info.

Not worth reporting, so I won't department: A truck near Manassas had a window blown out while driving. Police say they think it was stray birdshot from a hunter. If so, someone seems not to be keeping as far back from the road as he's supposed to when discharging a weapon, since that otherwise seems like strangely powerful birdshot. But you didn't hear it from me.

Radley Balko views the performance of Chief Moose with a jaded eye, particularly over the last couple of days.

Moose is oviously frustrated. He broke into tears after the school shooting Monday. But he's also a professional, and a public servant. His job is to "serve and protect" residents of Montgomery County. He should expect lots of public scrutiny.

Diana Moon has some interesting stuff about links among foreign terrorists and white supremacists, whatever relevance it might have to the case at hand.

Andrea Harris says it's muslim terrorists, or at least, she did yesterday. She asks

If it turns out that I'm wrong, and that neither Al Qaeda operatives nor their many fans were involved in this particular shooting, then I'm wrong. So what did I hurt?

Answer: We'll get to that. After the fellow is caught.

The Minute Man thinks bloggers can help catch the killer by "Generat[ing] ideas, the more the better. One idea will spark another. Some ideas will suggest lines of inquiry." As a local who would love to see the bastard(s) caught, I can't but appreciate his desire to help. But he doesn't make clear what we bloggers are supposed to do with all the ideas we come up with to further the investigation. Here's a list of what help the police would like from the public, though, which there may be some way for bloggers to contribute to.

Your Duh! headline of today comes from Fox5's website: "Investigators Hope Evidence will Lead to Finding Sniper."

Thanks to Virginia Postrel for kind words about this site's coverage of events.

WashPost staffer April Witt has a worthwhile piece about succumbing and not succumbing to fear.

There was no school today in Montgomery County because of a prescheduled teacher work day.

Spree Update - Either Chief Moose deserves an Emmy or his reaction this morning to the release of the "tarot card" information indicates that police are convinced it's a genuine clue.

UO would like to be sure the possibility that the tarot card was dropped after the fact by some sick prankster has been considered and eliminated for good reason, but it doesn't seem like Chief Moose would be wanting to tell us that.

Meanwhile a shooting inside a Brandywine, MD, motel room seems unconnected to the sniper spree so far.

UPDATE: Susanna Cornett is running updates on the sniper case at Cut on the Bias. It's worth noting that she has yet to be proven wrong in any of her speculations.

Morning Murder Minute - What may be the biggest development so far in the capital spree killer case, from this morning's Washington Post:

The sniper linked to nine area shootings left what appeared to be a taunting message for authorities outside the Bowie school where a 13-year-old boy was shot Monday morning, police sources confirmed last night.

"Dear policeman, I am God," the message said. Police said it was found on a Tarot card known as the Death card, part of a deck used in fortunetelling. Sources close to the investigation said it was spotted in a wooded area about 150 yards from the school entrance, where police also found a spent shell casing and a matted area of grass that suggested that the gunman had lain in wait.

Police will not confirm the message content for the record.

Veronica Powers, a professional Tarot card reader in New Orleans, said the card left at the scene has many meanings. On the card, which comes in different forms, death is often represented by a dark knight on a white horse. Figures representing popes, kings and paupers are at the animal's feet, symbolically bowing to death.

"The title of the card, death, is self-explanatory," Powers said. Besides death, she added, it can also signify change and transformation, although she added that the card has so many meanings that she doesn't think the shooter knows much about Tarot.

That makes sense. This is not quite a "It's not foreign terrorism" slam dunk, as it's possible the card is intended to mislead rather than clarify. But the bulk of police opinion seems to be shifting toward a "pwer-trip" killer. On the "They're heeeere" front:

Some [leads] -- like the one from a psychic who called from Oregon -- are deemed frivolous and given a low priority.

The article also says police have already determined the rifles seized on the "Bowie warrant" are not tied to the shootings.

Police have not definitively tied the September 14, 2002, "Hillendale shooting" to the spree either, though they are not ruling it out. Here is an eyewitness description:

Arnie Zelkovitz, the owner of Hillandale Beer and Wine, said he walked outside with one of his clerks, 22-year-old Rupinder Oberoi of Linthicum, and then heard "an incredibly loud noise."

Oberoi gasped in pain and then fell to the sidewalk, on his stomach. "All of a sudden, we heard a loud shot," Oberoi said. "I thought it was like some kid in the parking lot playing with a firecracker or something like that. Then, after five seconds, I was out of breath and I fell down on the ground."

Zelkovitz continues:

Last Wednesday, he was watching the late television news when he saw that a man had been shot in a Shoppers Food Warehouse parking lot a few miles from his store. The parallels between the two incidents were chilling, he said. He and his wife, Adrienne, were shocked to hear a police captain say that there had been no similar incidents recently.

"My wife and I just looked at each other: 'Of course there was a similar incident! Oh God, it's the same thing!' "

A separate article discusses possible profiles:

But last night, after police sources said that the killer apparently had left a taunting message for police near the school where a 13-year-old boy was shot Monday, [Professor James Alan] Fox said the sniper also wants authorities to know what he has done.

"He feels extremely proud of his ability to outsmart the police and he wants us to know it's him," Fox said. "He chose a school after police held a press conference saying schools are safe. Then he traveled outside Montgomery County after police said they were doing a geographic profile. At the school, he could've switched weapons but wants us to know it's him."

Fox said the message on the Tarot card is part of the thrill for the killer: "He's playing God. It is a game for him. That's his motive. It's all sport."

And, as Fox doesn't mention, last Wednesday's murder happened across the street from a police station.

More from the article:

"A lot of people say [serial killers] want to get caught," said Joseph Borrelli, a retired New York City detective who investigated a string of killings in 1976 and 1977 by David Berkowitz, who became known as the Son of Sam. "I don't believe it. If he's hiding out, he doesn't want to get caught. He's playing with them."

In the Son of Sam cases, Berkowitz wrote Borrelli a letter objecting to something he thought the detective had said. Berkowitz also received a parking ticket near one of the killings. Investigators in the sniper case need a similar break.

"He may think he's so smart he could talk to them," Borrelli said. "And that could be the first break in the case."

Peter Smerick, a former FBI profiler now with the Academy Group, a consulting firm, said a mistake by the killer may ultimately prove to be the break. "A great many resources are being directed toward this investigation, and the offender is aware of it -- meaning he's going to be a little paranoid," he said. "He may have already slipped up without realizing it."

This is true. Even if the card is misdirection, even if the shooter is Uday Hussein, handwriting samples and physical evidence are a lot more than the police have had before.

Elsewhere - There's been a lot of praise for this William Burton item about guns and "gun culture," all of it deserved.

Lost Productivity Watch - I've temporarily burned out on sniper coverage. Scott Koenig of Indepundit didn't, and he's done his usual excellent work of gathering and presenting updates. Scott's going on vacation so I'll try to raise my game again.

This morning Offering Boy officially crossed from Not Worried to Worried. He wriggled into the office from his bedroom during my pre-work blog and e-mail sessions and lay curled on the floor in his comforter. (It was a cold morning.) He was sending his characteristic "Ask me what's wrong" signals. I asked him how he felt. He waved his hand to indicate so-so. (He gets much less verbal when upset.) I asked him if he felt sick. He shook his head no. I paused and asked him if he was worried. He nodded his head yes. I asked him what he was worried about. A look to say, Come on, Dad, you know that's not how I prefer to do these things. I asked, Are you worried about the shooter?

He nodded his head yes.

Around that time I was seeing on local websites that schools were asking parents to drive kids in rather than putting them on the bus, and asking for adult crossing guards. Mrs. Offering was going to handle the drive, but something about Offering Boy's manner decided me; I e-mailed work that I wasn't coming in.

Our elementary school had plenty of parent volunteers, so I didn't get to be crossing guard. I never got to be a crossing guard when I was a kid either. Damn. What worried me was the extent to which an adult and police presence at the door was even relevant to the danger presented by a killer who shoots from a distance. I asked the principal if there was anyone down the road and across the park along the sight lines.

"Oh yes," she said, "they have marksmen out there."

That was the best news I'd heard in some time.

Morning dropoff and afternoon pickup went very smoothly. There is so much less panic in real emergencies than planners expect that the assumption of widespread panic has become tantamount to an insult. On the way back to the car, I pointed out the police to a much jauntier Offering Boy.

"I don't see any bad guys!" he said, pleased.

"That's because the police scared them away," I explained. It may have been true. It certainly pleased him.

A Fanboy's Notes - Remember the old Hostess comic book ads, that were one-page superhero "stories" ending with grateful consumption of Hostess snack products? No? Lots of other things to read on Unqualified Offerings! But if you do remember them, and if, unlike Unqualified Offerings, you were fond of them, you can see them all here. Plus an exclusive interview (and you can see why) with comic book writer/editor Bob Rozakis, who wrote many of the ads.

(Thanks to RGB Bill Dowling for the link. Bill, it should be noted, is the writer and artist of "Bender Beats the Crap Out of Frank Miller.")

Actually, It's E-Mails We Get - Reader/Gaming Buddy Mike Jacobs points out that the LaughLab site has a lot more than just the official funniest joke in the world. For instance, the project claims to have found the real (metaphorical, you understand) funnybone.

You don't seem to be able to search the joke catalog, which is too bad, because Unqualified Offerings would like to see if the long one about the little boy who goes to the circus was among the candidates, and how well it did.

Ounce of Prevention? - Reason Express links to this Washington Post story in which

The American Academy of Pediatrics says the nation's smallpox plan should involve limited vaccinations if a case occurs, not universal inoculations before there's even an attack.

Potential side effects are too severe, and available vaccines have not been tested on children, who may be at higher risk for bad reactions, the academy said in a policy statement being released Monday.

"We're talking about a disease that hasn't existed in the world since the 1970s and a vaccine that we know can cause death," said Julia McMillan, a Johns Hopkins School of Medicine pediatrics professor and co-author of the policy.

Based on studies from the 1960s, 15 out of every million people vaccinated will face life-threatening reactions, and one to two will die.

The academy's policy is considerably more conservative than one being finalized by the Bush administration, which plans to offer the vaccine to all 280 million Americans.

The academy said that unless there is a high risk of a smallpox attack, it makes more sense to vaccinate only if someone becomes infected. It recommends first vaccinating people closest to the infected patient, then others with whom those people and the patient may have come in contact.

It's not that there's nothing to the AAP's worries. The big problems are that

1) We won't necessarily know that there is a high risk of smallpox attack ahead of time. (Why? Because conquering Iraq is not going to make us safe. Yeah yeah, I'll shut up now.)

2) Once an infection breaks out, we may not have the supplies and infrastructure to vaccinate all the people necessary in the time necessary.

An alternative is to vaccinate only healthy adults now on a volunteer basis, and save high-risk populations for an actual attack. Deaths from vaccine reactions under this approach, a couple of hundred. For that, a huge gain in preparedness. As Glenn Reynolds has argued time and time again, any sizable immune population before an outbreak means that much slower propagation after an outbreak. That provides more time to decide what to do with the especially vaccine-vulnerable - the old, the very young, the immune-suppressed - and carry through once an attack comes.

Coming Attractions - If you live in the DC area, the following event looks worth attending:

The Fund for American Studies will host a debate on cloning. The conservative position will be argued by Ramesh Ponnuru of NRO and Justin Torres of AFF. The libertarian position will be argued by CATO's Julian Sanchez and Will Wilkinson.

The event will take place at the Fund for American Studies (1706 New Hampshire Ave. NW). Drinks will begin at 7:00 p.m., with dinner and discussion following at 7:30. Please RSVP to matthew@americasfuture.org.

We Get Letters - Reader, Gaming Buddy and DC resident Bill Dowling e-mails re Monday's item:

I have a problem with the most recent item on your site titled simply "Reminder." The problematic section reads:

UPDATE: To make it super-easy to contact your representatives, Justin Raimondo provides the Roll Call zip code search engine at the bottom of his column today. The results take you to a Roll Call page from which you can access the e-mail and phone info of your Senators, your House Rep and, as if it would do any good, the President.

I entered my zip code and followed the link, but failed to locate any Senators or a voting House Representative. Am I doing something wrong?

Answer: Yes, but Bill won't want Unqualified Offerings to say what.

We Can Remember It for You Wholesale - Loyal Reader Eric Mauro e-mails this link to the CIA's newly-declassified report on "Iraq's [here's that phrase - UO] Weapons of Mass Destruction Program." Eric was particularly struck by the part of the report dealing with Iraq's history of chemical weapons use:

Mar 1988
Halabjah
Mustard/nerve agents
hundreds [of deaths]
Iranians/Kurds

Writes Eric:

Jim isn't this odd? I had read back in May about the indictment being prepared against Saddam. It was classified for some reason. The background though, didn't mention Halabja (where 5000 were supposed to have died) and Anfal (where 50K,100K or 200K Kurds were supposed to have died). I thought these were the basis of the "Saddam gassed the Kurds" charge.

Now apparently the CIA has published its report. It claims the deaths at Halabja were only in the hundreds, not thousands, that many of the dead were Iranians (which would confirm theories that it was a battlefield, not a genocide), and doesn't mention Anfal as a gas attack. Isn't that odd?

No odder than the initial reports that Iran was responsible for Halabja. That was the public position of the US government for some time before Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. Then things changed. They can always change again if necessary, one supposes.

Man Bites Dog, Unqualified Offerings praises Krauthammer column. Specifically the one from this Monday, which makes the hard-to-refute point that Democrats in the House and Senate are mostly a bunch of weenies:

There are two logically coherent positions one can take on war with Iraq.

Hawks favor war on the grounds that Saddam Hussein is reckless, tyrannical and instinctively aggressive, and that if he comes into possession of nuclear weapons in addition to the weapons of mass destruction he already has, he is likely to use them or share them with terrorists. The threat of mass death on a scale never before seen residing in the hands of an unstable madman is intolerable -- and must be preempted.

Doves oppose war on the grounds that the risks exceed the gains. War with Iraq could be very costly, possibly degenerating into urban warfare. It likely would increase the chances of weapons of mass destruction being loosed by a Saddam Hussein facing extinction and with nothing to lose. Moreover, Saddam Hussein has as yet never used these weapons against America and its allies because he is deterred by our overwhelming power. Why disturb the status quo? Deterrence served us well against such monsters as Stalin and Mao. It will serve us just as well in containing a much weaker Saddam Hussein.

Pause to appreciate that Krauthammer states the antiwar case with gratifying fairness. He continues:

Preemption is the position of the Bush administration hawks. Deterrence is advanced by a small number of congressional Democratic doves.

Hey, Don't forget Unqualified Offerings, no one's Democrat!

But, ah, there is a third way. It is the position of Democratic Party elders Al Gore, Ted Kennedy (both of whom delivered impassioned speeches attacking the president's policy) and, as far as can be determined, Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle. This third way accepts all the premises of the antiwar camp. It gives us all the reasons why war could be catastrophic: chemical or bio-weapon attacks, door-to-door fighting in Baghdad, alienating allies, destroying the worldwide coalition of the war on terror, encouraging the recruitment of new terrorists, etc.

Moreover, they argue, deterrence works. "I have seen no persuasive evidence," said Kennedy, "that Saddam would not be deterred from attacking U.S. interests by America's overwhelming military superiority." So far, so good. But then these senior Democratic critics, having eviscerated the president's premises, proceed to enthusiastically endorse his conclusion -- that Saddam Hussein's weapons facilities must be subjected to the most intrusive and far-reaching inspection, and that if he cheats and refuses to cooperate, we must go to war against him.

This is utterly incoherent.

Yup.

Modest Proposal - The Violence Policy Center argues that there has developed a "sniper subculture" in the United States. Their website currently crows that they first made this argument in 1999. Let's say they're right, and let's say that the Capital spree killer is a homegrown sniper enthusiast and not a foreign terrorist, as some believe.

That means that all but about two of the members of the "sniper subculture" are law-abiding citizens. It's been three years since the VPC issued it's report. Presumably the subculture was already taking shape or they wouldn't have written about it. In all that time we have, right now, one sniper spree.

The point of this item is not that the VPC's case is overstated. It is that this sniper subculture is the obvious subject matter expert pool to turn to in efforts to catch the actual murderers. (UO keeps using the plural because it provisionally accepts the police statement that they are looking for a shooter and a driver.) Instead of shunning these people as dangerous freaks, a wise law-enforcement community, and a wise media establishment, would be turning to these guys for guidance. Engage their patriotism and their sense of community. Put their interest and expertise to constructive use. They can not only be useful on a general tactical level ("This is how I'd do it.") but in developing leads ("Bob was always wrapped too tight and we ain't seen him around.").

I've seen military people argue that police are pretty clueless about guns, which is why the ATF and Montgomery County PD are waving around a handful of rifles when, supposedly, any number of weapons might have been used to commit these crimes. One thing you can say about America's "gun nuts" - they're not clueless about weapons.

Of course, if instead of treating such a community as a resource, you stigmatize it and give it sound reason to fear law enforcement and the media both, you tend to vitiate its usefulness.

Any Old Port in a Storm - Senator Byrd has suggested that he may filibuster the "use of force" resolution in the Senate. His contact info is here if you would like to express your opinion on the matter. UO just called with words of encouragement. It supposes this might upset Sergeant Howard.

(Link via Open Letters.)

Money Matters - On Seablogger, Alan Sullivan wonders if there is a gathering economic storm:

There is no safe distance from which to watch the follies of subsidized industries. We are all consumers, and we all pay for the tariffs, quotas, abatements, allotments, cartels, and other market manipulations that persist under the so-called Freedom to Farm Act. This is corporatism in agriculture, and it seems likely to resume its more perverse pre-1995 forms as the economy sinks.

There's more. Curiously, while Alan segues into speculation on how the Million Mom War distorts Bush's economic policies, the connection between promiscuous interventionism and corporatist economics remains sotto voce. The essay is worth reading regardless.

Morning Murder Minute - More nonsuspect action:

Prince George's County police served a search warrant at the home of a Bowie man overnight, looking for any possible connection in the recent sniper shootings.
Channel 9 reports a tip from the community led police to the home. It is about two miles away from Benjamin Tasker Middle School, where a 13-year-old boy was shot Monday.

The broadcast report says police searched the home for about two hours starting at 12:30 a.m. Tuesday. Police removed seven weapons from the house, a book and a computer. Sources say they did not, however, find a 223-caliber weapon, like the one allegedly being used by the sniper.

Police have not charged the Bowie man with any crime. The investigation continues

AP via WTOP. This happened because, per NBC4

Tuesday morning, Prince George's County Police Chief Gerald Wilson said investigators found some evidence near the Benjamin Tasker Middle School, in Bowie, Md., but he said he wasn't at liberty to discuss that evidence. Wilson said the evidence would be shared with the coalition of partners.

If someone in Bowie is behind this it would seem to be a blow to the precepts of geographic profiling (see discussion below), one of which is that spree and serial killers start closest to home and work their way out.

Cheap religious "lessons" watch, from NBC4:

Most mornings before going to school, the honor roll student would go across the street in his community to join his neighbors for a prayer group. He did not join the group Monday before leaving for classes. The boy is reported to be in critical but stable condition after hours of surgery.

Look for this to appear soon in an evangelical tract near you.

Decent Post article on investigative techniques used here, including lengthy passages on both ballistics and geographic profiling.

Here's a story of a man who actually knew two of the Montgomery County victims and the help one family gave another.

WTOP reports that "Parents are urged to take their children to school and to volunteer as crossing guards." The crossing guard proviso makes sense. Oddly, UO had come to the opposite conclusion about getting Offering Boy to school, figuring that buses mean crowds and the killers have preferred isolated targets. Certainly driving a child to school did not keep the boy in Bowie safe.

Offering Boy says he's not scared because none of the shootings have been close to his school (on this he is wrong, but darned if we're going to tell him), and because "it's only Code Blue." There is also Code Red, in which not only are blinds drawn but everyone hides in the cloakroom.

Jim Henley, 07:24 AM

UO Gets Fisked! by R. Robot, who seems to think that Unqualified Offerings is a liberal:

Unqualified Offerings's anti-war spin
by R. Robot

Among the nattering liberals, Unqualified Offerings bashes people like George W. Bush with the usual anti-Americanism. "Don't hurt me," he said last week. Really? Didn't anyone hear Prime Minister Blair's pledge to rebuild democracy? Unqualified Offerings's irrelevance was internecine. It was bleating. It was outrageous. But I understate. I ask you, has our Republic seen the like of this political appeasement? I suppose some notice should be paid to the performance that the pathological Unqualified Offerings delivered Monday on The Late Show. "What ever happened to Osama Bin Laden?" he said. That's not what Unqualified Offerings was saying last year. Unqualified Offerings, blatantly, is a pro-kidnapping coward. Politics are allowed in politics, but there are limits, and there is a pale, and Unqualified Offerings has managed to impose those limits, and disgrace beyond that pale.

One of the malignant Democrats, Unqualified Offerings distorts the position of Jenna Bush. "So you're basically saying the Department of Homeland of Security would be like the FBI, except that it would specially train its agents to tell us when they heard rumors that some guy 'plans to crash hijacked planes into buildings,'" he said. It is tempting to accept this verdict as all the proof needed that Vice-President Cheney is solidly on the right track. But the argument needs to be addressed, not because it is not foolish but because it is the fashion among fools, and because those fools are bizarrely low fools.

I suppose some notice should be paid to the performance that the anti-war Unqualified Offerings delivered Monday at the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco. "Could you be a little more vague about why we're doing this?" he said. Considering the circumstances, this is curiously hypocritical and weaseling. Unqualified Offerings, wildly, is a formerly important loser.

The fellow appears to be obsessed with this website, as every search yielded a new attack. See for yourself. (Link via Electrolite.)

Why We Don't Fight - Read this chilling screed from an active-duty gunnery sergeant in the World Tribune (link via Instapundit):

Classified leaks; senators visiting Iraq and criticizing the president in public; retired flag grade officers providing insight on how they might see forces employed for combat; what is our country doing?

I'm all for freedom of expression, but for members of the government to do any of the above should be considered criminal. It is criminal down at the military service level. Members cannot leak info without going to prison. Members cannot bad mouth the president without repercussions as well. The fight at the highest levels of the government needs to be more discreet and behind closed doors. Let the citizens demonstrate and let the media guess, but don't give away our country's actions or intentions. Don't bad mouth the government service members who are going to have to fight in some capacity or another.

This fellow is saying that civilian authorities should face the same restrictions on their freedom of speech as active-duty military personnel. It's "criminal" for civilian - he speaks of retired - flag-grade officers to speak to their areas of expertise when asked, by, say, "senators," who had also better just watch where they go and what they say. (Dude, it was congressmen who went to Iraq. Try to pay attention.)

Classified leaks is a game that all sides play, including hawks when it suits them.

Let the citizens demonstrate and let the media guess...

...just don't let them have any, you know, effect on the process. That wouldn't do. It's all about the "members."

One thing a democratic republic can not afford is open, informed debate about the most fraught undertaking a nation can engage in. And since we are (nominally) a republic, and thus dependent on our senators and representatives, we especially need those people to conduct themselves according to the standards of active-duty military personnel.

Waging war from my way of understanding requires a focused effort at all levels: a solid round versus a shotgun blast. The solid round can kill an elephant, the latter a duck — if you are lucky. Without going into detail here, let me just suggest that reading General Vo Nguyen Giap's book "How We Won The War" illustrates this principle.

Sergeant Howard's argument is not entirely coherent, but he seems to be concerned that if our senators don't subordinate themselves properly to the executive, our government's powers will get all separated and stuff.

But it turns out not to be just our senators!

Whether or not anyone realizes this, war has already started. War begins in the mind and heart. How U.S. citizens agree with the president, or not, needs to be handled in a more respectful manner. A service member goes with the decision made by this government regardless of feeling. He just wants to come to home at the end of the day too.

Despite the author's occasional allowance that, for the general public there is something "called freedom of speech," as the article goes on, the distinction between citizen and soldier keeps blurring. How a "service member goes with the decision" is supposed, clearly, to be an example for "U.S. citizens."

There are still those pesky coherence problems. We are told that "War begins in the mind and heart." We're also told that we're already at war "whether or not anyone realizes this..." How you can be at war in your mind and heart and not realize it is not entirely clear.

But perhaps it makes sense to General Giap! Nor is Giap the only totalitarian model Sergeant Howard offers to us:

Where was Sun Tzu's press corps? My best guest was in the grave. I'm sure he considered them to be enemy spies.

God damn. Unqualified Offerings has argued for most of a year that the War on Terror risked turning the United States into an Empire. It never thought it meant turning us into Imperial China!

Balkan and Mideast cultures have no respect for vacillation.

Let Unqualified Offerings see if it is following here. We mustn't give a shit what the people of Germany think - that would be a foolish multilateralism. But we damn well need to act in accordance with the values of Balkan and Mideast cultures. Because they're history's losers and we're the mightiest nation ever, so we need to be more like them. Or something.

Certain citizens of this country have convinced me that members of the armed services need to buy their spouses a hell of a lot of life insurance to carry them over if they, or their friends, die because of someone running their soup-cooler.

No, Unqualified Offerings has no idea what the fuck Howard is trying to say here. Maybe this is because UO has never been fond of cold soups?

Puzzled, UO did actual research. "Soup Cooler." It appears to be a British slang term for a type of fart. That can't be it. It finally hits UO that it is Howard's term for the mouth. It gives one a very good sense of what Howard thinks that organ is good for.

It's easy to pick on Howard. (And damned fun too!) He's neither a professional writer nor very skilled at written expression. For that very reason, it's easier in his piece than in more polished ones to see the alluring skull beneath the skin of militarism: the obliteration of the distinction between citizen and soldier, and between civilian politician and soldier. It's where the road to war points. Does it mean we can't get off the road before we get to its terminus? No. But it doesn't mean it will be easy to get off either, or that we make it all the way back to our starting point. As Megan McArdle writes, a nation becomes "monstrous, baby step by baby step." There is a Chinese proverb about steps also, perhaps one known to Sun Tzu.

How Could I Forget your Talking Dog's contribution to the anti-war blogburst:

An uninformed citizen, such as myself, has only a small number of conclusions to be drawn from these events: (1) Iraq presents a far smaller threat than you say it does, which is why you have not taken military action until now AND there is some political benefit to your waiting until now (less than a month before a Congressional election in which both houses are up for grabs), OR (2) Iraq presents an extremely grave threat which you have neglected to deal with UNTIL NOW for partisan or other inappropriate reasons, allowing Saddam Hussein to grow stronger each day. For all our sakes, I'm hoping it's (1); if it's (2), Sir, your negligence has put us all at grave, imminent risk and you should resign at once in favor of someone who will take his national security duties seriously.

The New Fall Line - Here are some gift ideas for the holidays:

Unqualified Offerings is a wrapping paper! It makes you invisible!

Ginger Stampley is a belt buckle that's bigger on the inside than the outside! It produces 240v of electricity.

Eve Tushnet is like a normal small plastic pyramid, but it keeps children amused.

Offering Boy is a barcode reader that quacks like a duck and tells you when it's ready.

Gene Healy is a screwdriver that catches spiders, can be used to scrape ice off of windscreens and cures all know illnesses.

Jim Henley is like a normal sock, but it communicates with wireless devices.

The Talking Dog is like a normal robotic dog, but it takes high-quality digital photos.

Find more at the Prior-Art-O-Matic. Link via Where Is Raed.

Also check out The Surrealist Link

Highlights from the Blogburst

Christine Quinones: "I lost my office in the World Trade Center that day. An acquaintance of mine lost his life. Nothing would make me happier than to see the men responsible for orchestrating those attacks brought to justice. Attacking Iraq is not only irrelevant to this task, but it will make that task harder by alienating many allies and potential allies whose cooperation is essential."

Jeanne D'Arc: "I have been a Democrat all my life, but lately I have been wondering why. We have come to a moment in our history when the very essence of who we are as a country is at risk. Will we be a democracy or an empire? A country that believes in the rule of law and respects other nations' rights, or the toughest gunslinger on the planet? Will we wage war only after careful consideration by Congress, or on presidents' whims? At such a crucial time, and with so many urgent matters to deal with, the Democratic Party -- with the exception of a few brave dissenters like Dennis Kucinich and Robert Byrd -- has fallen silent."

(UO does not mind being the toughest gunslinger on the planet - it's the shooting the damn things off all night that bugs it.)

Charles Dodgson: "Even if you think in "clash of civilization" terms, it doesn't follow that military responses are necessarily the only ones, or the best (nor Iraq necessarily the best target)."

Ruminate This: "To the contrary, we are already learning that a unilateral preemptive strike against Iraq will spawn similar attacks throughout the world. Once we cross that line, it will be crossed elsewhere: in Russia and Chechnya, in India and Pakistan, in North and South Korea; and in countless other hot spots where nations may find the dealing with regional conflicts more easily solved The American Way...through rapid and offensive unilateral punishment."

(UO can handle unilateralism, needless to say. It's the so-called "pre-emption," which is not really pre-emption at all.)

Political Junkie: "It appears from the actions of Congressman Gephardt this week that bipartisan support for Bush’s desire to take military action against Hussein is growing. I am very afraid that this will be my generation’s Gulf of Tonkin resolution. I would like to see that resolution as narrow in scope as it can possibly be. George Bush has been complaining to the press that congress wants to 'tie his hands.' I believe that tying his hands is exactly the constitutional and proper role for congress. I hope that everyone in congress remembers when crafting a resolution that they are negotiating an action that will result in the deaths of people, our servicemen and women as well as innocent Iraqis, who have committed no crime other than being born under the shadow of a tyrant."

Views from the Outside: "I am opposed to the impending war with Iraq. I do not believe it will have any meaningful effect on terrorism aimed at our country. Indeed, I believe it highly likely to have the exact opposite effect and act as a rallying point for future terror attacks. I do not believe our economy is strong enough to support a prolonged engagement. I do not think what we are being asked to give up by way of rights and freedoms balances against what little we may gain."

In a Blog's Stead: "After waging an undeclared (and unconstitutional) war on the Iraqi people for the past decade via bombings and embargoes, the United States finally gave Iraq an ultimatum: agree to let in our weapons inspectors, or we'll invade. So Iraq agreed to let in our weapons inspectors. And now we're going to invade anyway??

Despite the fact that Iraq has met our demands? Despite the fact that no credible link has been established between Iraq and the September 11th attacks? Despite the fact that Iraq is no worse than dozens of other tinpot oppressive dictatorships around the globe (many of which actually possess weapons of mass destruction right now, rather than in some imagined future)? And despite the fact that whatever weapons of mass destruction Hussein may have, he (not being suicidal) is unlikely to use except in the event of an invasion, when he has nothing left to lose?"

Unqualified Offerings is presently mulling the propriety of a separate "How the hell did you get on my team?" item including certain other contributions. Watch this space.

Antiwar Blogburst - The following open letter to Congress is part of a blogburst, a simultaneous, cross-linked posting of many blogs on a single theme. For a guide to other letters in this blogburst, go to the Open Letters blogburst index. (UO-specific note: It turns out I'm not really limited to 200 words after all!)

Dear [Congressperson]: The most important reason to vote against authorizing the President to use force against Iraq is that you are not really voting on whether to authorize the President to use force against Iraq. You are voting on whether to sanction a decades, even generations-long attempt to occupy most of the Near East using military force and "reconstruct" their societies. You are voting to authorize an imperial project. Honest writers and thinkers close to the administration's braintrust have been frank about this. (Such frankness is, of course, lacking within the administration.) You are voting also to use force to overthrow the governments and "reconstruct" the societies of Syria and Saudi Arabia and Iran and Egypt, among others. Lately Libya has begun making appearances on the list. You are voting to validate rhetoric that future presidents will use to involve us in similar "projects" elsewhere.

Many mild critics of the administration have worried that the Iraq war "could spin out of control." They are missing the point. It is supposed to spin out of control. It is very, very easy to start a war. It is very, very hard to end one. The prudent country therefore starts few, and for the direst reasons only. Once you, by your vote, put us in, you will have no leverage toward getting us out. "Support our troops!" you will hear. "Finish the job!" The job will grow progressively larger as the war lengthens. It will take much more courage then to stop the process than it will take now to keep it from starting.

If you support a generations-long war and occupation, one that will require, in the end, hundreds of thousands of troops and hundreds of billions of dollars, you should vote for this war, and have the decency to tell your constituents that that is what you are doing. If you oppose that project (which some call "national greatness"), the time to stop it is now. If you oppose that project and vote for this opening act of a much larger conflict, history will judge you harshly, if it is permitted to do so.

And? - Instapundit quotes a Maryland reader as follows:

So, even if we don't have an Al Qaeda or Separatist Militia, we should still call the calculated, paramilitary, random shootings outside D.C. as we feel them: actions that terrorize the community, make people feel uncomfortable about going outside, and senseless, scary violence. Which, as it happens, is also known as terrorism.

To which Instapundit responds "Indeed."

Okay. It's a strange notion for a non-liberal (in the therapeutic managerialist sense) - Unqualified Offerings refers to itself here, but might have thought the description would cover Glenn Reynolds too - to give much credence to classifying experience based on emotions. Conservatives and libertarians have been fighting this tendency in arguments over sexual harassment in the workplace for years, among other issues. What you feel is not the be-all and end-all, we have argued.

But put that aside. Let's call the Capital spree killers "terrorists," regardless of whether they have any political motivations.

So? Instead of calling them murderers or spree killers or chickenshits, we'll call them "terrorists." What of it?

This is not entirely a rhetorical question. (Granted, it's mostly a rhetorical question.) Really, what's the gain?

Here's an interesting converse from Jesse Walker.

Idle Speculations Addendum - Reader Ken Landa adds to the possibilities:

It's also possible that the killer(s) is/are cognizant of the additional scrutiny that the spree has created and (i)has/have become nervous, agitatated, etc.; or (ii) felt forced to hurry the shot.

This is an excellent point.

In Other News - Julian Sanchez's contribution to the antiwar blogburst is a marvel of eloquence, reason and passion.

Idle Speculation II - Returning to this blog's preferred dispassionate analysis mode for as long as possible, the signal trend in recent sniper shootings is that the victims have lived. The first seven shots killed six people, with no woundings. It's not certain that the first shot was even intended to kill anyone. The last two known victims, in Fredericksburg and Bowie, have at least not been instantly fatal. (The Bowie boy may still die.) The possibilities:

1) Megan McArdle is right and the shooter is not that great. He had a run of luck at first but his performance is regressing to the mean.

2) The shooter is as good as the early shots indicated and is going through a patch of bad (for him) luck.

3) As part of his sick game of "Look how good I am!" he has decided to deliberately wound rather than kill the last two victims.

4) UO's own previous speculation is correct: There is one gun and two people, but instead of "a driver and a shooter," they are taking turns, playing out some marksmanship contest.

5) It's a terrorist operation like certain warbloggers believe (hope). There's one gun but more than one team of killers. It's been passed to a new team that is just not as good at shooting, though still just as successful at getting away.

Possibility 4 is looking less crazy somehow.

Bowie Update - The Matron of the Offerings just called to say that the TV news says they have definitely linked the Bowie bullet to the others. So it's the same creeps that have now taken to shooting kids, not different creeps. I'll post a link when I have one.

Scott Koenig of Indepundit again has a good set of updates, and this passage which speaks for a lot of us, I think:

UPDATE 2: One more advantage bloggers have over the mainstream media -- I can use the word "chickenshit" whenever I choose, and nobody can make me remove it. I felt it was appropriate in this instance.

I'll bet there are a few reporters in Maryland who wish they had as much editorial liberty right now.

Susanna Cornett has more profile speculation here.

UPDATE: The Post has the link story here.

Color UO wrong on speculation about the bullet passing clean through the child, too:

At 3:30 p.m., the eighth-grader remained in critical but stable condition at Children's Hospital Center after surgery to remove the bullet that had lodged near his heart. Surgeon Martin Eichelberger said the boy had "weathered a significant injury" to his abdomen and chest but that doctors were satisfied with how he had come through the surgery.

Fuckers.

Bowie - Some son of a bitch shot a thirteen-year-old on his way to Middle School in Bowie, MD, about a half-hour east of DC, this morning. Police say it's too soon to say whether this shooting is connected to the others. The boy was shot once, which fits, but ballistics tests will take time assuming a bullet is even recovered. (Reports don't say. Unqualified Offerings had the grim thought that children are smaller than adults, so there's less tissue for a bullet to get through. The kid may be alive so far because the bullet went clean through him before it could break up.) No useful witness reports that police will admit to. Here's the Post story. There's a red light enforcement camera that a fleeing vehicle may have triggered if, while fleeing, it ran a red light. UO suspects this will not turn out to be the case.

One bitter certainty is that there will be copycats out of all this, even though the Fredericksburg shooting didn't turn out to be one. Clearly whoever shot this child desperately needs to have his balls shot off. We just don't know if it's the same guys yet or not.

Reminder - Today is the day for the antiwar blogburst, sponsored by Ampersand of Alas, a Blog. Unqualified Offerings will be participating. No, it has no idea how it will keep its open letter under 200 words as required. You're a funny guy/gal, loyal reader.

UPDATE: To make it super-easy to contact your representatives, Justin Raimondo provides the Roll Call zip code search engine at the bottom of his column today. The results take you to a Roll Call page from which you can access the e-mail and phone info of your Senators, your House Rep and, as if it would do any good, the President.

Jersey on my Mind - The Illuminated Donkey is one year old today! Long may his inner light shine. Of course, Unqualified Offerings has him beat by 999 years as of October 21.

To celebrate, here is a link to the Donk's very first post.

Without so much as a note from home, Justin Slotman retakes the vacant throne of the Insolvent Republic of Blogistan. A grateful readership is glad to have him back, for all that Noelle Bush will miss his company at the halfway house.

Rumors that Justin will be re-titling his weblog DahliaLithwickWatch are unsubstantiated at this time, but still fun to spread around.

Stray Spree News - A UPI story contains the following odd quote:

With every unexplained shooting getting the close attention of police, investigators were checking out a report late Saturday that a man was shot to death in a secluded area near Rocky Gorge Reservoir in Howard County, Md., not far from Montgomery County.

In Rockville, Md., Montgomery County Police Chief Charles Moose told reporters Saturday night, "Forensic evidence has shown us that their case, their shooting is linked to the Montgomery shootings, linked to the D.C. shootings."

This is strange, since none of the other organs following the case have carried such a claim, and some have said that a connection between the Howard County murder and the Potomac Spree killings has been flatly ruled out. WTOP's latest update says

Howard County police said the death of Leon Swain, 26, of Washington, whose body was found in a wooded area Saturday night near Montgomery County, didn't match the pattern of the other killings. Police declined to say why.

Fox5's story is less commital.

WJLA says the police now have a "geographic profile" of the killer(s). What's a geographic profile? It's...well, new:

Rossmo wouldn't discuss the results in detail, but says such profiles have been very successful in locating the homes of criminals. The first geographic profile was prepared in Canada in 1990, and they've been used mostly outside the United States.

At least we haven't started hearing from the psychics yet. (But if this link shows results by the time you read this then that paradise is closed to us as well.)

ECRI of Canada will sell you a geographic profile "if you have case that you think Geographic Profiling would help in or wish to talk to our customers about their experiences using Geographic Profiling..." Here is part one of a multi-chapter explanation of how geographical profiling is supposed to work.

Morning Murder Minute - Item I: Robert G. Baker. WTOPNews repo